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Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal
I never use a single factor to make investment decision. Always a multi-
factor model considering FA, TA and momentum. Trend chasing model is very
tricky indeed. You could get burned easily.
You should read my other post which reflect my current view of overall
sector:
Biotech Stocks, Where to Invest?
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Stock/31388302_3.html
【 在 sylviapp (sylvia) 的大作中提到: 】
: You need to wait to see next week if the OI change. Anyway, this method is
: very dangerous. I used it before and it was totally wrong and I almost got
: wiped out. It's not reliable. Just a kindly reminder.
Cast your own vote here:
 digest it!  dump it!
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Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal
Volume doubling open interest referes to Dec 100 call.
【 在 sylviapp (sylvia) 的大作中提到: 】
: wild guess will kill you someday. hehe. I thought you mean DEC 100C. JAN
: 105C is even smaller than DEC100C. Only around $15w, nothing la.
: taken
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal
Just an observation of position change. Whether or not you want to trade
based on these is a different story. I don't have any positions but I did do
intensive research on individual companies and overall sector if I ever
open any positions. I am in Biology field long enough to help make sound
judgement.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 今天最大的Deal，MA |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 今天最大的Deal，MA
I don't think RIMM has a bright future long term due to its weakness on
software development side but Apple's penetration to corporate side has long
way to go. RIMM's market share gain on consumer side will slow down
significantly after IPhone 3G introduction.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 今天最大的Deal，MA |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 今天最大的Deal，MA
V is much bigger and better prepared on legal side than MA although it's
more expensive on P/E. V has settled with American Express and will have
only Discover suit hanging on.
I personally nly own V option and stock positions not MA.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 今天最大的Deal，MA |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 今天最大的Deal，MA
Both V and MA have incredible sales this morning. Their fundamental and
growth are still very strong. Legal issuue is just one-time thing. Both are
still very good long term investment.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal
Buying ETF will hedge your risk and may be a better deal. Depending on which
ETF you buy someone of them are too heavily weighted on DNA, whihc is not
good.
I don't think ELN's Alzheimer’s drug has a bright future. If you get in low
, you should lock in your profit on this rebound.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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0 |
Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Re: Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal
$70 final price seems to be a very popular guess amongst buy-side. Although
offer price is currently $60 the stock is trading around $65. This reflects
market view of what price it will finally get the deal done. Current trading
prcie is usually lower than final deal price. This is pure guess anyway.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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0 |
Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal |
eric717 2008-07-31
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MITBBS -- Biotech Takeover Fever, Who's next after Imclone Deal
BMY-IMCL deal gets done and may be in a higher price around 65-70. IMCL
jumped 20 to 65 from yesterday's close.
Here are the list of comapnies on speculation list of future dating game:
Amylin/Eli Lilly (Byetta); OSI/Genentech (Tarceva); Biogen/Genentech (
Rituxan); Genzyme/BioMarin (Aldurazyme); Vertex/JNJ (Telapravir); Human
Genome Sciences/Novartis & GSK (Albuferon & LymphoSTAT); Regeneron/Sanofi (
VEGF-TRAP) ; Onyx/Bayer (Nexavaar); Idenix/Novartis (various compounds) ;
Momenta/Novartis (Enoxaparin); Affymax/Takeda (Hematide); Cardiome/Astellas
(Vernakalant); Progenics/Wyeth (MNTX); Adolor/GSK (Entereg). I'll also point
out a name in my book which I've mentioned before: CVTX/Astellas.
Who knows which deal will get done. I can only guess that some of them will
happen in the near future.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Biotech Stocks, Where to Invest? |
eric717 2008-07-28
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MITBBS -- Biotech Stocks, Where to Invest?
Being in Biology field for about 10 years in the past, biotech and big
Pharma stocks are always part of my interest in my own investment research.
I followed R&D of all major companies and their clinical trials closely.
Just want to give my 2c on the field in general.
I don't think there is any upside near term on all big Pharma stocks. The
reason is simple: no blockbusters from any of these firms near term. In mean
time patents of lots of their big selling drugs will expire in near future.
Most of companies try to cut their expenses but that's the way to keep or
increase your profit.
Biotech fields are quite different. Recent bid of Genetech(DNA) by Roche
stimulated quite some interest. The consensus among analyst is that Roche
has to raise their bid from $89 to triple digit, something like a 50%
premium of pre-bid value of $70, which is $105/share if Roche does succeed
in taking over DNA.Roche's bid also generated speculations on other
potential deals such as Pfizer's bid on Biogen Idec.
Biotech index has been up a lot in the past couple of weeks, primarily due
to takeover bid of DNA by Roche. Since DNA is heaviest weight component in
most of biotech index. Additional upside will be limited. Looking over other
big Biotech firms, Gilead Science(GILD) and Celgene(CELG) are among the
best companies to invest. They can be picked up on any major weakness.
In terms of small cap and speculation plays, Provenge by Dendreon is coming
soon. The interim analysis of the ongoing phase III prostate cancer study
will take place in October. November options will go nuts for sure.
Personally I only have stock positions on Vertex(VRTX), it's a long term
holding in my account.
Trade at your own risks.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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0 |
Apple Strategy: sacrifice profit margin to gain market shar |
eric717 2008-07-22
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MITBBS -- Apple Strategy: sacrifice profit margin to gain market shar
Declining profit margin is very bad news in short-term to momentum traders
who had previously been big believers in Apple's growth story. They have
bailed out. It seems quite clear some major new products and maybe new price
points are coming in 2009 time frame. Based on the current information,
there is high possibility that they will cut the price of Mac book line to
accelerate the penetration of market share. In addition, Ipod touch price
may get cut also. There is also speculation of an iPhone-based tablet
computer.
In my opinion, they may suffer on profit margin but gain market share
quickly is more important in long term.
Other than Jobs's health condition I am still bullish on the stock long term
and will try to add positions near term on weakness.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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0 |
Here's the reason of AAPL big drop by Barron(ZT) |
eric717 2008-07-22
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MITBBS -- Here's the reason of AAPL big drop by Barron(ZT)
In summary, profit margin will drop to 30% in 2009, which is big. This drop
is due to the introduction of some new products in future. No one knows what
kind of production introduction will results in such a big shrink of margin.
"
Apple Slides On Margin Worries; Estimates, Targets Fall
Posted by Eric Savitz
Several issues emerged for Apple (AAPL) in the wake of last night’s
earnings report for the company’s fiscal third quarter and the subsequent
conference call with the Street.
Yes, one issue is the company’s refusal to directly respond to the ongoing
Street anxiety about the health of CEO Steve Jobs, saying only that he has
no plans to leave, and that his health is a “private matter.” But the real
issue plaguing the stock this morning is gross margins. The company said
its gross margin in the September quarter will fall to 31.5% from 34.8% in
the June quarter. And more startling, the company said it expects gross
margins in fiscal 2009 to be about 30%. That is sharply below the level most
analysts had been modeling for next year, and it has triggered sharp EPS
estimate cuts, as well as widespread reductions in stock price targets,
which tend to be calculated from projected forward earnings.
The big mystery that emerged from the call was the company’s comment that a
key reason for the lower margins related to a future product transition
about which it gave no details. That has created a variety of theories on
what Apple might have in store: Updated iPods? A refreshed line of notebooks
? A tablet PC drawing on the touch capabilities of the iPhone? Something no
one is expecting?
It is interesting that for all the high drama, I find only one analyst who
actually changed a rating on the stock: Standard & Poor’s hardware analyst
Tom Smith went to a Sell from a Buy, slashing his price target to $140 from
$210. He specifically cited the forecast of lower margins, which he says “
indicates a weakening trend.”
Here’s a rundown on what some of the other analysts are saying about Apple
this morning:
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer: He says the big news was the “knee-capping” of
FY ‘09 gross margins. “The obvious question is: what magnitude of product
innovation (and revenue upside) would propel Apple to sacrifice so much
profit?” he writes. “Our guess: something big. While product details and
the appropriate growth adjustments will emerge over time, we note that
innovation has always been the key to Apple’s growth and premium valuation
…the near-term challenge for Apple’s shares is that the cost of the
product enhancements will take an immediate toll on earnings forecast, while
the potential long-term revenue upside will only be revealed in the
ripeness of time, when the new products are introduced. This is a test of
faith.” He cut his target to $213 from $235, but maintains an Outperform
rating.
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank: He cut his target to $200, from $235. In
addition to the gross margin issue, he thinks the issue of Jobs’ health
will remain. “The absence of a straightforward denial of health issues will
increase speculation of a worst case scenario,” he writes. Whitmore keeps
his Buy rating on the stock.
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital: Cut his target to $190, from $205. As many
analysts wrote this morning, he says the long-term margin guidance is likely
conservative. He also notes that at a least a portion of the gross margin
impact will be for new products not yet in revenue guidance, “leading to
potential upside.”
Bill Fearnley, FTN Midwest: Cuts target to $208, from $215. He thinks the
unannounced news is a notebook refresh. “We believe AAPL is lowering its
gross margin expectations because the cost of goods of the new notebooks
will likely be higher than current models,” he writes. “We do not believe
AAPL is lowering its notebook prices. Instead we believe AAPL is likely to
update key components with higher COGS.
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan: Cut FY ‘09 estimate to $5.91, from $6.26.
Maintains a Market Perform rating, but says that “any severe sell-off may
prove to be an interesting point of entry.”
Vijay Rakesh, ThinkPanmure: Cuts price target to $200, from $225, but
advises investors to “take advantage of the price weakness to build core
positions.”
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel Partners: Cuts estimates, but repeats Overweight
rating. “We would be strong buyers of AAPL shares based on underlying
growth in units and long-term cash flow trends.”
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital: He contends the reduced margin outlook contains
a “silver lining,” noting that prior product transitions has similar
interim impact on financial results. He maintains an Outperform rating, but
cuts his target to $200 from $220.
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: He maintains his buy rating and $250 price
target. Munster says that the gross margin guidance “was a shock,” noting
that over the last 7 quarters Apple has guided margin down an average 271
basis points sequentially, compared to 350 points last night. Munster thinks
the company is readying new iPods and new portables; he sees an 80% chance
of redesigned MacBooks and possibly MacBook Pros. “We believe Apple is
getting slightly more aggressive with its pricing; but overall the company
is not diverting from its strategy of premium pricing.”
Scott Craig, Bank of America: Target price cut to $180, from $190, but keeps
Buy rating. “Management is likely being conservative and pointed in ‘
investments in front of them,’ which to us implies that the company is
either introducing new, lower margin products or that near-term pricing
actions are likely.”
Ben Reitzes, Lehman: Cut his target to $220, from $234. “Investors will
likely focus near-term on surprising margin guidance through FY ‘09.”
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research: He notes that the forward guidance on
‘09 margins was unusual, breaking with the company’s habit of looking out
one quarter at a time. His theory on the margin issue: in addition to the
usual conservatism, he thinks there is “a potentially significant
forthcoming set of re-pricing actions on new products, most likely in Apple
’s notebook or iPod lineup.” He contends Apple appears to have decided to
drive gross margin dollars with high volume and lower margins, not unlike
its recent price cuts for the iPod Shuffle and the iPhone. Sacconaghi also
notes that there were some signs of weakness in the U.S. business, with Mac
sales at Apple stores up 44% year-over-year, the slowest growth in 9
quarters. Apple store traffic was down sequentially to 32 million visits
from 33.7 million. Sacconaghi says a “strong pullback” could provide an
attractive entry point, but he doesn’t think $150 is the right price. At
that level, he notes, the stock trades at a comparable multiple to both
Google and Research in Motion, despite lower revenue and EPS growth for next
year. He keeps his Market Perform rating and $175 price target.
"
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Update on My AAPL Positions and Thought on Future Direc |
eric717 2008-07-21
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MITBBS -- Re: Update on My AAPL Positions and Thought on Future Direc
I usually post my trades after executing. I was in hospital on July 11 when
the baby was born and called the broker to execute the trades. No time to
post. If I decleared the positions here I will send a note if I close it
right away. This time is a special case.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Update on My AAPL Positions and Thought on Future Direction |
eric717 2008-07-21
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MITBBS -- Update on My AAPL Positions and Thought on Future Direction
Just finished my cooking today and baby is sleeping now.
Didn't have time to post for a while. Just saw AAPL earnings news and low
ball guidance is expected.
I have sold all my 150 calls on July 11 at 4.2, first day of new Iphone 3g
launch. I bought 100 call at 5 and another 50 at 3.8. So I lost about $6000
on this position. This sell was planned immediately after the position was
opened.
Due to the trading restrictions, I have to trade around well-known events
and request the trade well ahead of time. Hopefully people on this board
didn't follow blindly without your own analysis and read all my posts.
I disclosed my plan in the following posts on June 16:
"I agree with you about the risk of current quarter earnings. I don't plan
to
hold through earnings. If we get a small bump up on the first day of new
Iphone sale around July 11 I will sell my positions."
and again on June 27 of the following posts:
"APPLE:
I have expressed my bullish bias in a couple of posts and added 150 Jan 250
calls recently. The stock will have a run-up on sale of new IPhone around
July 11. Earnings on current quarter may not be very strong. Another concern
is the health of Steve Job's health. If Jobs is in good health condition i
expect stock will break out to new around October after new IPhone sales
number announces. In short term it may drop a little bit more.
In terms of overall market, it has not reach to the panic stage as judged by
VIX. It may still have more downside to go but I think it's close to short
term bottom."
You can find both posts on bbsdigest under my name.
"
In terms of future direction, I am still positive on future directions but
Jobs health condition is a big concern as mentioned by Chinook and Wavelets.
Quite some hedge funds unloaded positions since June due to this concern.
Low-ball guidance is truly a bit crazy given strong Iphone3G sales. I plan
to enter the position again if the price becomes attractive in the near
future. Now it breaks down well under both 50 and 200-day moving avergae.
200-day moving average is a key level watched by lots of people in the
street. In this round of drop, when Apple was only up around 3 when Nasdaq
was up 70 points and the weakness continued in the next couple of days last
week you know it's bad sign.
Good Luck everyone!
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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2 |
24 Ultra Short ETFs |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- 24 Ultra Short ETFs
Here's the list of all 24 ultra short ETFs:
UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index
.
UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index.
UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services
Index.
UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD), attempts to track twice the inverse of the
daily performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF), attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index.
UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD), attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index.
UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ), attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Industrials Index.
UltraShort MidCap400 ProShares (MZZ), attempts to track twice the inverse of
the daily performance of the S&P MidCap 400 Index.
UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG), attempts to track twice the inverse of
the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index.
UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID), attempts to track twice the inverse of the
daily performance of the NASDAQ 100 Index.
UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS), attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.
UltraShort Russell MidCap Gr ProShares (SDK), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Russell MidCap Growth Index.
UltraShort Russell MidCap Val ProShares (SJL) attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Russell MidCap Value Index.
UltraShort Russell1000 Growth ProShares (SFK), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
UltraShort Russell1000 Value ProShares (SJF), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 1000 Value Index.
UltraShort Russell2000 Growth ProShares (SKK), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Growth Index.
UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (TWM) attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Index.
UltraShort Russell2000 Value ProShares (SJH), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Value Index.
UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS), attempts to track twice the inverse of
the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index.
UltraShort Semiconductor ProShares (SSG), attempts to track twice the
inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index.
UltraShort SmallCap600 ProShares (SDD), attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW), attempts to track twice the inverse
of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index.
UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP), attempts to track twice the inverse of
the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Index.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: V and AAPL, An Update |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- Re: V and AAPL, An Update
Yes. when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Oil price
will severely crimp air travel. You can either do a swing trade on current
channel or just hold it for long term and ignore current price volatility.
【 在 garfieldking (FAT CAT) 的大作中提到: 】
: I think visa can settle down the law suit with discovery, even not, they
: only pay fixed amount and already reserved. The problem is how oversea
: increase can compensate the decrease in US. It is good for long and mid
: term, not fast money for short term.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Re: Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Th |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- Re: Re: Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Th
We are trying to hire a chef to cook for the first month. Haven't find the
good candidate yet.Looks like I will be a fulltime cook for the first two
weeks. Glad to be back to my biology experiment. Just joking,. I consider
cooking as if I am doing biology experiment and enjoy it.I didn't cook for a
long long time.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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0 |
Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo
This IM function is crucial in big markets like China although it's not as
widely used in developed markets. US teenagers and college kids do use them
a lot.
【 在 wavelets (蝌蚪游呀游) 的大作中提到: 】
: yeah. to me, actually the iphone 2.0 is more important than iphone 3G.
: I was keep using a blackberry just for the IM software avaliable there.
: iphone new push won't be avaliable till september.. wich is a big
: disappointment (a must for IM software).
: recent NOK fully acquisation for symbian shares is a priority change for
the
: software in cellphone business.
: Mot gave up their shares in symbian a while back now turns out need to
fully
: rely on msft and google for the compeitition.
: by the way, don't forget the andriod from google in the software game.
: google is a powerhouse for mobile softwares as well.
: ...................
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo
Very good points. we may get better entry levels than mine. Competition in
phone market is very fierce. weather or not if AAPLE can have the same
success as IPOD is still a question. One advantage they have is that they
can leverage thie expertise on software of MAC platform, which is the weak
spot of both RIMM and NOK, not MSFT.
【 在 wavelets (蝌蚪游呀游) 的大作中提到: 】
: difference is for ipod, there is no big player there before,
: and when others realize, apple is dominate already.
: now, apple still have huge advantage, but others paid enough attention to
it
: and the reaction is faster than the music player war.
: it will be tough.
: I think at some point there is a major disappointment for aapl and then we
: will see a clear good buying point.. (if anyone missed the round of 120 -
: 160). I believe what you hold now is cool, but too aggressive load up
: without see a good bottom is tough.
: will
: ...................
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo
I agree with you on the strength of MAC business. But for new IPHONE they
may repeat their success of IPOD after lowering the price to reach mass
market. I read the article about Microsfot's PINK project. Competition will
definetely heat up in the future. That's why it's a so important to get
market share now by lowering the price. my biggest concern is Steve Jobs's
health.
【 在 wavelets (蝌蚪游呀游) 的大作中提到: 】
: the strength of aapl is on mac,
: the bright spot (influencing the stock price most) is the cellphone biz.
: After apple show what should be done in the smartphone, everyone is moving
: quickly and getting this sector "crowded" and making it harder to maintain
: good margin.
: I think aapl realized they made mistake not grab the market fast enough
and
: adjusting the whole business direction in iphnoe 3G, but we dont know if
it
: is already late, especially in the current business enviroment.
: Any sector if showing up more than 2 big players is a bad sign, right now:
: rimm, aapl, nov.. and news comes out that msft is doing a project code
named
: ...................
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo |
eric717 2008-06-27
|
MITBBS -- Re: Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Mo
Thanks everyone.
I will be very cautiuos on AAPL and don't plan to hold through this quarter'
s earnings and will sell in the week of July 11. Hopefully we can get a
rebound above 175. Chinook expressed some concern on AAPl positions aslo.
【 在 wavelets (蝌蚪游呀游) 的大作中提到: 】
: congrat for the baby!
: be cautious about AAPL, there are a few news I think really brought in
: negative impact for aapl FA.
: and
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Months |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- Expect a new born and Will quit watering for Three Months
I am expecting a new born next week and will quit posting and responding
emails sent to my box for three months. I will send a few posts on AAPL and
V trades when I have time.
Will donate 900 old MITBBS money and 400 new MITBBS money to the board.
Good Luck everyone!
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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6 |
V and AAPL, An Update |
eric717 2008-06-27
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MITBBS -- V and AAPL, An Update
Visa:
V is currently in the trading range of 75-85. First it's not a sexy stock
like fertilizer that will make you quick money. But if you can trade short
term, you should buy around 75-78 range and sell around 83-85 range. You can
observe from the charts that it always rebound quickly after a dip below 80
.
From FA point of view, sales trends are still relatively strong especially
outside the US.
It generated 20+% growths in the highly lucrative cross-border payment
market. But Lots of transactions depend on air travel. Oil price surge will
definitely have impact on its earnings.
They still have some unsolved legal issues with Discover after settled with
American Express.
Retailers continue to grumble about the cost of processing fees and are
increasingly looking to offer customers discounts if they pay in cash. Visa'
s reduction on fee of gas transactions is a good example.
The lockup on Visa's shares expires in mid-September and I expect to see
selling pressure in advance of the event.
In summary, I think it will remain in this trading range for quite a while
and will not break out recent high of 89 until financial sector and overall
market stabilize and recover.
In long run it should be a solid holding in your portfolio.
APPLE:
I have expressed my bullish bias in a couple of posts and added 150 Jan 250
calls recently. The stock will have a run-up on sale of new IPhone around
July 11. Earnings on current quarter may not be very strong. Another concern
is the health of Steve Job's health. If Jobs is in good health condition i
expect stock will break out to new around October after new IPhone sales
number announces. In short term it may drop a little bit more.
In terms of overall market, it has not reach to the panic stage as judged by
VIX. It may still have more downside to go but I think it's close to short
term bottom.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Bought Another 50 AAPL Jan 250 call at 3.8/contract |
eric717 2008-06-26
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MITBBS -- Bought Another 50 AAPL Jan 250 call at 3.8/contract
Just added another 50 AAPL Jan 250 call todat at 3.8/contract. I bought 100
Jan 250 call at 5/contract on June 16, which is under water now. Both trades
are not for quick money. AAPL may drop a little bit further but I believe
it has very strong support at 170 area. I will build my positions gradually.
I plan to hold it for as long as 2-3 months. I believe when new IPhone sale
number is released there is very strong possibility that AAPL will be
traded at new all time high. This could happen in late summer or may be
reached after third quarter earnings number is out.
Don't follow blindly and make your own judgement.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: short aapl at 176.55 |
eric717 2008-06-25
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MITBBS -- Re: short aapl at 176.55
You have to be quick to take profit on your short position whenever you get
it. I think AAPLE will break current trading range of 170 -192 to about 200
after July 11 release and pre-earnings run-up.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Trend Following VS Calling Turning Points |
eric717 2008-06-24
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MITBBS -- Trend Following VS Calling Turning Points
In my opinion most of money you made on the market is through following the
trend instead of identifying exact turning point and buying at exact low or
selling exact high of the market. First it's very difficult to call the
turning point. Second it's more comfortable to place a trade when you see
clear trend even if you miss some profit opportunities. Taking an example of
energy sector, it's hard to tell when oil will hit the high or bottom but
if you long energy sector in the past couple of years you will still make
money. Bull market of commodity sector is still intact for next 5-10 years
although I think it may top
out in short term. These will not prohibit you to buy low and sell high but
with mind set of big trend.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Suggestions to yyber |
eric717 2008-06-22
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MITBBS -- Re: Suggestions to yyber
yyber, I have to say the second point mentioned in C Shuai's message is
extremely important if you already
made your mind to trade full-time. Even if you can devote all your time on
trading it doesn't mean you
have to trade all the time. Chasing missed opportunities and losing money is
worse than sitting tight on
cash. Enter point usually decides if it's a winning or losing trades.
【 在 chinook (Base Loaded) 的大作中提到: 】
: I get to say Eric said all what I wanted to say, yyber. Please re-evaluate
: your decision with all the feedbacks you got.
: ....
: .....
: Lastly, I would guess your decision might be still a GO, considering your
: mood and situation now. That's completely fine, life is a place full of
risk
: and reward, and you go what you like to pursue. However, this would be my
: 1c suggestions, hope you can keep in mind and I will type in Chinese to
make
: you remember better :-)
: 1. 设好人生的止损。
: ...................
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Suggestions to yyber |
eric717 2008-06-21
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MITBBS -- Suggestions to yyber
Here's my 2c:
If you are really interested in finance field, go to get a degree then find
a job or just go directly find a job. Personally I don't think it's a wise
decision to quit the job and trdaing full time unless the interest income
you earn in money market fund on your currently cash is more than your
annual total compensation. If you meet this criteria you can risk some of
your money on losing positions and still keep positive attitude when you
make investment decisions. Otherwise when you are in pressure to make money
and trade too often you could end up losing lots of money.
To be successful as a trader, you have to have passion not just try to make
money and become rich quickly. Redaing investment articles and doing
resaerch at home after work is just my hobby and I love to do it. In our
generation, lots of smart people pick up the wrong major and pay the big
price. I myself was in biogy field for over 10 years. When we were in China
there was no stock market yet. Although we wasted lots of time we can always
switch to the field we love. It will never be too late. I am currently
working in financial industry and is very happy on my decision to change
career path to we what I realyy like.
In addition quitting the job to trade full time doesn't mean you have to be
a day-trader or swing trader to be successful. You can also be successful to
trade intermediate term.
Your health and and personal life is also important. You have to find the
time to enjoy the life. Keeping good health is No.1 thing above all.
Quitting the job and trading full time could be very stressful. I also
agree with the opinion expressed by a couple of other peolle: trading full
time doesn't necessary mean that you will be more successful.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Nasdaq Closed Above 2400 |
eric717 2008-06-20
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MITBBS -- Nasdaq Closed Above 2400
Congrads to all the bears! You guys have a good party today.
Market is oversold now but not extremely oversold. If it closed under 2400
it would be really bad. As discussed in a post yesterday, if it can't hold
2450 area in the next two weeks there will be more downside to go. Big caps
like AAPL and RIMM are pretty bad today. If they gave up, NASDAQ will give
up.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 马甲筒子们，BSO袅，向俄开炮！ |
eric717 2008-06-20
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MITBBS -- Re: 马甲筒子们，BSO袅，向俄开炮！
I totally agree with you.
Health is No.1 above all. I play basketball for two hours on Saturday and
Volleyball for another hour on Sunday. Run 1.5 -2 miles each weekday.
You also need to find time to enjoy life. I don’t want to wait until 60s to
start enjoying the life. You will always have time to make the money. To a
certain point, when you have everything covered in your life, much more
money doesn’t make a big difference unless you want to buy your own plane,
which I don’t.
【 在 DJBWSN (千年生物破死刀) 的大作中提到: 】
: 前辈神舞！反正够花了，俄现在不想赚太多的钱袅；求稳，反而钱源源不断。世界奏是
: 这么奇怪！
: 俄嚼滴, 健康，家庭，生活更重要！
: OH, YEAH!
: see
: but
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 马甲筒子们，BSO袅，向俄开炮！ |
eric717 2008-06-19
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MITBBS -- Re: 马甲筒子们，BSO袅，向俄开炮！
I think one very good point you mentioned here is that don't try to catch
each wave of trading opportunity. Control risks and trade only when you see
a clear picture. This way you may miss some opportunity making the money but
you will have much more winning trades than losing ones.
Lots of good suggestions.
【 在 DJBWSN (千年生物破死刀) 的大作中提到: 】
: 今天多喝了几杯红酒，唠叨几句。你们几个马甲常年不见发言，今天有种放马过来，俄
: 也。
: 1。俄也蝌蚪过来滴，吃过亏。
: 炒股不下苦功夫不幸
: 很多盘面不仔细看不行
: 一天翻倍有过，被砍掉50%总仓也有过
: 但从来没发财，因为风险意识不行，不能持续。
: 俄的持续快速增长，就是靠风控，越赚越带劲，越愿意学习市场和知识。
: 老老实实学fa/ta知识和技术
: 下功夫看盘才是正道.
: ...................
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Re: Anyone has opinions on BMW M6 Convertible? |
eric717 2008-06-19
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MITBBS -- Re: Re: Anyone has opinions on BMW M6 Convertible?
That's very true. I think BMW's overall quality is better than Mercedez.
Porsche is definitely another good option and a more luxury brand than BMW.
【 在 vankie (似水流年| Master Wugui) 的大作中提到: 】
: plus, for M6's hefty price tag, you may wanna go for more luxurious brands
,
: such as Mercedez SL series, Porsche Carerra series or even Maserati. For
BMW
: brand, anything over $80K will be way too much. Now matter how much you
pay
: for a BMW, it'll never make you look like you are driving a $100K car.
: wife'
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Re: Anyone has opinions on BMW M6 Convertible? |
eric717 2008-06-19
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MITBBS -- Re: Re: Anyone has opinions on BMW M6 Convertible?
Thanks all of you for your valuable suggestions. Based on your suggestion
and further research I think M5 is a better choice than M6. I drive my wife'
s X5 in the weekend and I like it a lot. Acceleration is very fast. It's
also very comfortable.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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-- quality posts less water