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Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。 |
walstudio 5d99h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。
没见过这么恶毒的"交流"，紫大妈，你慢慢玩,我就不陪了
【 在 guanjiu (老蝌蚪酒倌) 的大作中提到: 】
: 樱桃，不能这个样子讲话。删贴吧。
【 在 cherry88 (cherry) 的大作中提到: 】
: 自从5月份我质疑你一个贴之后，你就再没停止过对我的嘲讽和骚扰。
: 这个贴是交流的，见仁见智，你有种就讨论正题，没种就滚远一点。
: 一个大老爷们成年累月，无休止地说一个女ID的坏话，不怕抑郁鸡心早得癌症啊？
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Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。 |
walstudio 5d99h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。
There is no average. just like there is no average of 0->unlimited
Somebody may find the edge earlier,
Somebody may never.
【 在 ShortCut (总想偷懒) 的大作中提到: 】
: sigh! what's the average time to become a gruaduate from market?
: Let me see if I still have hope.
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Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。 |
walstudio 5d99h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。
说老巴不做Option，地球人都笑了
读不读书还是有区别的
【 在 cherry88 (cherry) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我来试着解读一下吧：
: 做DT， 不stable，但volatile;
: 做PT， 不volatile,但stable。
: 所以两者尽管结果同为盈利，但过程不搭界，因为关注的力度和支撑点，应该是
: completely different profile.
: 最好的例子就是巴菲特不做option，不做short，但他是做long term的。
: 看来读不读书， 还真都一样。
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Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。 |
walstudio 5d99h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: DT是很危险的，非高手不能为也。
有些事情急不来，读个本科还要4年呢.
【 在 ShortCut (总想偷懒) 的大作中提到: 】
: What? Don't scare me away, I've been in market for almost 2 years, just
: start to train my 心态. 几十个月? where will I get to the point?! Kusi.
: 55555555555555555
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Re: vankie too niu le!! |
walstudio 5d100h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: vankie too niu le!!
Take it easy, it's just the MA200, not a magic number what so ever,
Just like all other TA, if it cannot break, it's call a resistance,
If it breaks, it's call "break out the resistance".
【 在 tolive1975 (tolive) 的大作中提到: 】
: 发信人: vankie (似水流年), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Re: 大家觉得这波会升到多少？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 2 19:14:51 2010, 美东)
: 10450
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Re: 前天买了BKC C19. |
walstudio 5d115h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 前天买了BKC C19.
BKC的Call 似乎Aug 25就开始异动了
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-02/burger-king-option-trading-surged-before-buyout-bid.html
Burger King Option Trading Surged Before Buyout Bid
September 02, 2010, 4:25 PM EDT
More From Businessweek
By Jeff Kearns
(Updates with closing price in seventh paragraph.)
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Trading of bullish Burger King Holdings Inc. options
surged to a record Aug. 25, a week before the second-largest U.S. hamburger
chain agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, lifting the shares 25 percent
today.
Volume for calls to buy the stock jumped Aug. 25 to 37,427, or almost 20
times the average during the preceding four weeks, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. Call trading exceeded that level yesterday, reaching 54,284,
after the Wall Street Journal said the company was in talks to be sold.
Call options that convey the right to acquire shares for a given price by a
certain date usually offer higher returns to traders speculating on
takeovers. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission polices the market to
ensure investors aren’t engaging in insider trading.
“You don’t see 30,000 options being accumulated in Burger King ever,”
said Alec Levine, a strategist at Wallachbeth Capital LLC in New York. “It
’s probable that it was leaked information about the deal, and they seemed
to know the pricing and the timing.”
Miguel Piedra, a spokesman for Miami-based Burger King, and 3G’s managing
partner, Alex Behring, didn’t return phone messages seeking comment today.
John Nester, a spokesman for the SEC, declined to comment.
October $20 calls were the most-active on Aug. 25, changing hands 20,714
times to account for more than half of call volume, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. Those contracts more than quadrupled to $3.50 today,
a sevenfold gain from their close at 50 cents on Aug. 25.
Shares Rally
Burger King rallied 25 percent to $23.59 as of the 4 p.m. close in New York.
The stock rose 3.6 percent on Aug. 27, at the time the biggest daily
advance since May 10.
“There’s the potential that it was the use of inside information,” said
Ophir Gottlieb, a trader and head of client services at Livevol Inc., a San
Francisco-based provider of options market analytics. “I don’t want to
scream bloody murder, but it’s not normal.”
Burger King agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital for $3.3 billion, giving the
New York investment firm control over the chain. The $24-a-share price is
46 percent more than Miami-based Burger King’s close Aug. 31, before
reports of a deal surfaced.
3G is an investment vehicle whose main investors are three Brazilian
business partners -- Jorge Paulo Lemann, Marcel Herrmann Telles and Carlos
Alberto da Veiga Sicupira, according to three people with knowledge of the
matter. The men founded Brazilian investment bank Banco de Investimentos
Garantia SA and agreed to sell to Credit Suisse Group AG in 1998 for at
least $675 million.
Lazard Ltd., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Barclays Plc are advising 3G Capital,
and Kirkland & Ellis LLP is legal counsel. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. are advising Burger King, as are Skadden Arps Slate Meagher &
Flom LLP and Holland & Knight LLP.
--With assistance from Duane D. Stanford in Atlanta and Burt Helm and
Zachary R. Mider in New York. Editors: Chris Nagi, Stephanie Borise
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at jkearns3@
bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@
bloomberg.net.
【 在 mitbbs2020 (我愿弃世登仙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 前来BSO一下。神一般的意识吧～
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Re: POT 的 AUG C135 |
walstudio 6d121h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: POT 的 AUG C135
多加一栏Open interest的数据?
看看是什么时候埋伏的
【 在 mitbbs2020 (我愿弃世登仙) 的大作中提到: 】
: DATE PRICE VOLUME
: 8/20 H14.46 67
: 8/19 13.41 177
: 8/18 12.75 230
: 8/17 8.54 3284
: 8/16 .06 143
: 8/13 .08 99
: 8/12 .09 12
: 8/11 L.01 25
: 8/10
: ...................
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Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析 |
walstudio 6d138h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析
看来你对流动性牛市的理解有偏差,正是因为钱没有流出银行进入到实业,
才会有流动性牛市这种说法,不信你去看看最大的几个银行09年的Profit
Trading占了多大比例，还有一个佐证是中国股市，从08年底4万亿出来，
上证涨了差不多100%,后来才有陆陆续续的报道说钱没有流到实业上，
而是很多都跑到股市和楼市上面了，09年8月初开始的3478的大跌，
其中一个引子就是说国家要收紧信贷。
【 在 mitbbs2020 (我愿弃世登仙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1. 我基本上还是speculator的风格，长期宏观的东西我也很关注，但跟我个人的交易
: 关系寥寥。
: 2. 你的很多观点我不同意，
: a 你说股市的变化不是单单股市本身产生的， 本来就没人这么认为，这没有任何新
意。
: b 你给的链接里面说09年是政府注资带来的流动性牛市，我也不这么认为，政府确实注
: 资，但集中在
: financial领域，而且基本没有带来多少额外的流动性。基本是流入银行，没有流出过
: 银行。
: 谈一下您提到的“从Yield/Yield Curve，或者是Credit Spread来预测double dip”的
: 理论
: ...................
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Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析 |
walstudio 6d138h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析
那你就有必要检讨一下你的模型啰，hehe
既然话都说到这个份上，我也不怕得罪的说一句，
我刚开始的时候因为你老在版上说你的KE系统,
我留意过，不过觉得可能还不如简单的Parabonic SAR
纯粹探讨,nothing personal
【 在 djinwa (djinwa) 的大作中提到: 】
: I have been following the correlation of stock market v.s. economic data.
So
: far, there is no statistically sound correlation at all. Only for longer
: term, it shows stock leading economic indicator. So stock market itself is
a
: great reading about economy. Not the other way around ironically.
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Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析 |
walstudio 6d138h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析
不知道你有没有留意,大部分的股评都是围绕着什么支撑,什么压力,
然后拉一个VIX,CPC来充数，这也是我为什么说停留在股市本身，
我现在唯一跟踪看的市场Summary是Bloomberg的，因为它还会提到Yield Spread,CDS这
些。
这么说吧，说股市跟经济无关的要么是新手，要么是气话，
我的理解就是经济本身就像Underlying security,而这么多
不同的市场，都是在这个之上的Derivative,绝大部分情况下
是前者决定后者的，当然有一些极端的时候会反影响，这也是
为什么有杀Call/Put之说。
至于Yield curve等东西，我就不献丑了，专门谈这个的
有很多，我上次推荐的那本Economy indicator书里面有
一小章就提到这个。但还是那句话，不是什么时候都应该
看Yield spread的，要搞明白特定阶段为什么要看这个．
【 在 mitbbs2020 (我愿弃世登仙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1. 我基本上还是speculator的风格，长期宏观的东西我也很关注，但跟我个人的交易
: 关系寥寥。
: 2. 你的很多观点我不同意，
: a 你说股市的变化不是单单股市本身产生的， 本来就没人这么认为，这没有任何新
意。
: b 你给的链接里面说09年是政府注资带来的流动性牛市，我也不这么认为，政府确实注
: 资，但集中在
: financial领域，而且基本没有带来多少额外的流动性。基本是流入银行，没有流出过
: 银行。
: 谈一下您提到的“从Yield/Yield Curve，或者是Credit Spread来预测double dip”的
: 理论
: ...................
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Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析 |
walstudio 6d139h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 共享一下今天mcmillan对市场的分析
貌似说了很多，其实什么也没说
不是我Mean,而是我读过这么多市场评论，特别是
这种每天一评的，真的Make sense的目前还没看到过，
大部分都是是复述一遍what happened,但至于Why it happened,
解释的原因都太MHP
我觉得这里面很重要的一个原因是，像qiuyueshifu说的，
这些市场评论，无论是基于TA还是FA,都只是停留在
市场的形态上，而没有触及到市场的结构变化。
【 在 mitbbs2020 (我愿弃世登仙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 多学习一下牛人的分析，别老是跳大神，整些没用的东西。
: The Standard & Poors 500 Index, and all other broad market measures,
: started off the new month in extremely bullish fashion today. It seems
: that traders were waiting for the turn of the calendar to do some
: massive allocation shift out of bonds and into stocks.
: After strong foreign markets overseas on Tuesday night, a positive
: economic report this morning shot the S&P 500 (SPX 1,080, +30.96,
: +2.95%) literally 15 points higher in a matter of mere minutes. Those
: gains were then added onto in a modest fashion over the rest of the day.
: Even so, this doesn't really change things a lot, although it has the
: ...................
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Re: 市场迷失方向之际 |
walstudio 7d145h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 市场迷失方向之际
daledale就是受"TA神牛"影响太大，其它倒没什么
还有一点就是先玩好SPY再说, 不应该玩SPY option，
上次的Aug Call悲剧了，弄不好这次的Sept Put也要悲剧.
To option:Timing isn't everything, it's the ONLY thing.
【 在 guanjiu (老蝌蚪酒倌) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不止吧。
: 如果俺没记错，daledale还是要试探青蛙反映的。
: 哈哈。
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Re: How could money be pulled out of stock market? |
walstudio 7d166h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: How could money be pulled out of stock market?
The biggest myth: stock market is a "zero-sum" game,
The matter of fact is, stock market is NOT
a zero-sum game, the futures market
(one long contract must come with one short contract)
is zero-sum game.
If you can't understand this, you have trouble understand
inflow and outflow.
【 在 GWM (要乖哦，要不圣诞没礼物喽) 的大作中提到: 】
: Not even a good try. All your example can only inject money into market,
not
: pull out. Of course, companies can buy back shares, but in good time they
: buy back more (opposite to the time of people pulling out of money).
:
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Re: How could money be pulled out of stock market? |
walstudio 7d166h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: How could money be pulled out of stock market?
It can be money come out from money market also.
And there is other related news that, PIMCO
is selling treasury and adding on
emerging market/international market equity.
【 在 concept (ironowl) 的大作中提到: 】
: interesting. inflow of bond funds are much larger than outflow of equity
: funds. must be foreign money.
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Re: How could money be pulled out of stock market? |
walstudio 7d167h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: How could money be pulled out of stock market?
The report was released yesterday, it just confirmed whatever
we observed from the market. The conclusion:
------------------------------------------
The July data continues some general trends:
* Outflows from money market funds: From January through July 2010, $515
.6 billion flowed out of money market funds. This is primarily related to the current low yields on those funds.
* Mixed patterns for domestic and international equity funds:
o Funds invested in domestic equities have shown outflows for
three months; year-to-date through July, these funds have seen cumulative outflows of $29.6 billion.
o Funds invested in international equities were in net inflow
through July. Year-to-date through July, these funds had net inflows of $27.9 billion.
* Continued strong inflows to bond funds: Bond funds attracted net new
cash flow of $185.6 billion from January through July.
【 在 walstudio (午夜未眠人) 的大作中提到: 】
: Good try, there are formal names for that:
: New Sales,Redemptions,Exchanges In,Exchanges Out
: See the statics for the trend of July.
: http://www.ici.org/research/stats/trends/trends_07_10
: //I forgot whether I mentioned this website before or not.
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Re: lili回来了 |
walstudio 8d172h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: lili回来了
lili似乎用情很深啊，这次
//哎，我又八卦了
-------------------------------------------------
liliwater(lyrist) 个人说明档(心情：这是干嘛的？)
我在想，
多年以后，
当我的头发再一次长长，
当我完好如初地走在人群中，
再一次和他们擦肩而过，
我的内心是怎样的呢，
那该是什么呢？
凤凰涅槃后的清新和振奋，
劫后余生的庆幸和感恩，
还是历尽沧桑的平和和豁朗呢？
但无论怎样, 我能确定的是，
我一定会，一定会百感交集，
并且再一次，再一次情不自禁地笑着。
--家琪
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Re: 那个网站可以查ETF的NAV??? |
walstudio 8d192h ago
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mitbbs_ChinaStock -- Re: 那个网站可以查ETF的NAV???
That's the premium/discount ration,
NAV is NAV, the column above the premium/discount.
【 在 leonidas (东海兔子) 的大作中提到: 】
: thanks!
: I got
: Prem/Discount 1.11%
: Is this the NAV?
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-- quality posts less water